Text of “Submission of Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution” 24 Dec. 2020

Letter from Kenya’s Ministry of Environment and Forestry to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat

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Full text, roughly extracted:

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

OFFICE OF THE CABINET SECRETARY

Telephone: 254–20–2730808/9 N.H.LF BUILDING
Website : www.environment.go.ke RAGATI ROAD
Email:cs@environment.go.ke P.O. BOX 30126–00100
When replying please quote: NAIROBI

Ref. ME&F/CS/249/2020 24% December, 2020

Ms. Patricia Espinosa

Executive Secretary

United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat
P.O. Box 260 124. D-53153

BONN GERMANY

RE: SUBMISSION OF KENYA’S UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

1. Kenya submitted her Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) on 28th
December 2016. The NDC sets out both adaptation and mitigation contribution based on conditional support. The mitigation contribution
intended to abate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2030
relative to the business as usual (BAU) scenario.

2. Despite our first NDC being fully conditional to international support, most
of the progress made in implementation to date is from domestic resources.

3. Compared to our first NDC target of 30 % emission reduction, our
updated NDC commits to Abate GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 relative
to the BAU scenario of 143 MtCO2eq; and in line with our sustainable
development agenda and national circumstances. The timeframe for
implementation of the NDC is up to 2030, with milestone targets at 2025.

4. The total cost of implementing mitigation and adaptation actions in the
Updated NDC is estimated at USD 62 Billion.

5. Compared to our first NDC which was fully conditional to support, Kenya
commits to mobilize resources to meet 13% of this budget, and will require
international support for 87% of the budget.

6. Kenya’s Updated NDC is hereby attached, and formally submitted.

Keriako Tobiko, CBS, SC, Cabinet Secretary/National Focal Point, Ministry of Environment and Forestry, NAIROBI

Amb. Raychelle Omamo, SC, EGH, Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, NAIROBI

Hon. Justice (Rtd) Paul Kihara Kariuki, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General and Department of Justice, State Law Office, NAIROBI

Hon. (Amb) Ukur Yattani, EGH, Cabinet Secretary, The National Treasury and Planning, NAIROBI, REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

1. Introduction

Over the past decade, Kenya has been experiencing successive impacts of climate change resulting to great socio-economic losses estimated at 3–5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually, and impeding development efforts. The situation is exacerbated by the country’s dependence on climate sensitive natural resources. Despite the country’s negligible contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (less than 0.1% in 2018), Kenya has put up ambitious policies and measures to pursue her low carbon climate resilient development pathway to realise Vision 2030.

This updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is in accordance with paragraph 22–35 of decision 1/CP.21 and Decision 4/CMA.1 and its annex. The contributions described in this submission build upon Kenya’s initial NDC, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2015–2030, new policies and national plans, and reflect subsequent work as captured in Kenya’s Second National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2018–2022) and the Third National Inventory Report (NIR 3). The updated NDC has been informed by a more detailed and robust assessment of mitigation and adaptation measures, in-depth analysis, improved information and data, and an extensive stakeholder consultation process.

1.1. Background and Overview

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased in Kenya over the past decade. Prior to 2010, Kenyan sectors had ad-hoc responses to extreme weather events and other climate change impacts. The responses included distribution of famine relief food, El Nino Response programmes, and Animal off-take programs, among others. Kenya developed a National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) in 2010, the first National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) in 2013, and a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in 2015. The strategy and plans jointly provide a vision for low carbon and climate resilient development pathway, while a National Climate Change Framework Policy was adopted and Climate Change Act (2016) enacted to facilitate effective response to climate change. Kenya has operationalized these policies and plans through the implementation of climate change actions in various sectoral plans, programmes and projects such as afforestation and reforestation, geothermal and other clean energy development, energy efficiency, climate smart agriculture, and drought management, amongst others.

Kenya, as a Party to the UNFCCC, submitted its Intended NDC in July 2015. The country signed the PA in December 2015. The INDC subsequently became the NDC when Kenya ratified the PA on 28" December 2016. The NDC sets out the country’s adaptation and mitigation contributions. This updated NDC is in line with Decision 1/CP.21 (paragraph 24) which requires an update by 2020 and every five years thereafter pursuant to the PA (Article 4 paragraph 9). Although Kenya also communicated adaptation actions to the UNFCCC through NAP (2015–2030), the actions outlined in this NDC form Kenya’s adaptation communication regarding the Paris Agreement. The NAP, from which the priority adaptation actions communicated in the NDC are drawn, is aligned with the Constitution of Kenya, the Climate Change Act (2016) and Vision 2030 which is Kenya’s long-term development plan up to 2030. It is also aligned with the Medium-Term Plans (MTPs), which are the five-year implementation plans for Vision 2030.

The priority mitigation and adaptation actions in this NDC will be implemented through the NCCAPs as set out in the Climate Change Act, 2016, therefore availing opportunity to enhance the ambition every five years with the revision of the NCCAPs. Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (UpdatedNDC) describes Kenya’s mitigation and adaptation contribution for the period 2020 to 2030 and proposes priority mitigation and adaptation actions for the period. The Updated NDC proposes a more ambitious contribution relative to the first NDC even though significant international support is required to exploit mitigation and adaptation potential to realise the overall NDC targets.

This Updated NDC is based on the findings of the analysis carried out during the NDC updating process. The analysis provided evidence that, with substantial support, Kenya can meet and exceed the initial NDC mitigation target of reducing emissions by 30% relative to the Business as Usual Scenario by 2030. In addition, it examines the climate projections and the associated impacts before proposing and identifying the priority adaptation actions. It also provides the evidence base and recommendations for ambition enhancements in the Updated NDC.

1.2. National Circumstances

The Republic of Kenya is a unitary state with a multi-party-political system, located in the Greater Horn of Africa. The Constitution of Kenya creates two levels of Government, namely: the National Government and 47 County Governments that have defined mandates and functions. The National Government has the responsibility of formulating policies that will ensure that the country transforms to a low carbon climate resilient development pathway, and of ensuring that programmes are put in place to deliver its obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNECCC). (sic)

The population of Kenya was 47.6 million in 2019, (2019 Population Census), and is projected to reach 60.4 million by 2030. The country is a lower middle-income country with an estimated national GDP of US$ 82.0 billion in 2017, and aspires to be “a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment”.

Over 84% of Kenya’s land area is arid and semi-arid, with poor infrastructure and other developmental challenges, leaving less than 16% of the land area to support over 80% of the population. The Kenyan economy is dependent on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture, water, energy, tourism,
wildlife, and health, whose vulnerability is increased by climate change. Increased intensities and magnitudes of climate related risks in Kenya aggravate conflicts, mostly over natural resources. This has frequently forced the country to reallocate development resources to address climate related emergencies.

These impacts are not gender neutral, impacting men, women and other gender groups differently.

Kenya’s mean surface temperature is projected to increase in the range of 1°C to 1.5°C by 2030. Rising temperatures trend is expected to continue in Kenya in all seasons. The temperatures may increase at a higher rate in lowlands than those in plateaus and highlands. It is estimated that temperatures in western Kenya could increase between by 0.9°C and 1.1°C by 2025. Temperatures in the northern Kenya could increase by a similar amount (1.1°C), but a projected lower rate of warming in the southern coastal region (of 0.5°C). IPCC 2014 presents strong evidence that surface temperatures across the region have increased by 0.5–2 °C over the past 100 years, and from 1950 onwards, climate change has altered the magnitude and frequency of extreme climate events. The frequency of cold days, cold nights, and frost, has decreased; while the frequency of hot days, hot nights, and heatwaves, has increased. Rainfall projections show that the October-December (OND) short rains will increase in many counties of Kenya compared to the March — May (MAM) long rains that will extremely be low under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios with most of northern Kenya having rainfall deficits whilst southern Kenya will have a slight increase of rainfall. During the dry season June — September (JJAS), the rains are projected to decrease for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, whilst increase for RCP 4.5. Studies forecast that by 2015, precipitation levels in the long rains season will decline by more than 100 mm in large parts of the interior of Kenya. Analysis of climate trends in 21 ASAL counties between 1977 and 2014 shows an increase in temperature in all 21 counties, with five counties surpassing a 1.5°C increase, and a general decline in rainfall in 15 out of the 21 counties. These results suggest that the normal variability in Kenya’s precipitation patterns will be the dominant influence on its climate over the coming decades.

Drought and floods are the main climate hazards, negatively impacting lives and livelihoods, with human health increasingly being at risk. Extreme climate events cause significant loss of life, and adversely affect
the national economy. They are a threat to Kenya’s security. Adverse climate effects, particularly floods and droughts, have the catastrophic and increasing impacts across the country. In 2018, floods led to loss of human lives in Kenya displacing more than 230,000 people including 150,000 children, and closed over 700 schools, while wiping out billions of shillings worth of Roads and infrastructure, 8,500 hectares of crop and drowning over 20,000 head of livestock.

Droughts cause large-scale disasters destroying livelihoods, triggering local conflicts over scarce resources, and eroding the ability of communities to cope. ‘The 2011 drought caused over $11 billion damage, with hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming in from affected neighbouring countries. The 2014–18 drought affected 23 counties, 3.4 million Kenyans were severely food insecure and 500,000 people did not have access to water.

Sea level rise is already affecting coastal towns and communities and is expected to impact up to 86,000 people a year and lead to coastal erosion and wetlands loss at an annual cost of about KES 6 billion by 2030. Rising sea temperatures off the coast of Kenya have triggered mass coral bleaching and mortality on coral reef systems over the past two decades. This impacts the abundance and composition of fish species and negatively impacts coastal fisheries. The key water tower, Mount Kenya’s glaciers have shrunk to only 17% of their size and are expected to disappear in the next 30 years, threatening Kenya’s largest river that carries more than 60% of the country’s hydropower and that has many cities and critical portion of Kenya’s agricultural land.

While Kenya has abundant renewable energy resources such as geothermal, solar, wind and hydro for electricity generation, more than one half of Kenya’s households use wood fuel for cooking. Hydro power, which has been a major source of electricity for a long time is increasingly impacted by variable and unpredictable rainfall. The country also has significant oil reserves and about 400 million tons of coal reserves which are yet to be exploited. Coal mining, in particular open pit mining as planned for Mui basin, could have strong environmental and social impacts in future. Due to its production experience in many countries as well as relatively low costs, coal is also an important fuel option for electricity expansion planning for Kenya, but the negative environmental impacts must be factored in. There have been proposals to build two coal power plant in Kenya, one of which would be based on local coal while the other would use imported coal. However, the use of coal is accompanied by strong environmental impacts, such as high emissions of sulphur dioxide, heavy metals and harmful greenhouse gases. The
country is therefore faced with choosing between the exploitation of her fossil fuel resources to realise her development objectives and foregoing their exploitation for environmental reasons. To forego all the benefits of exploiting the fossil fuel resources, Kenya will need significant international support.

Kenya’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased from 56.8 MtCQ,e in 1995 to 93.7 MtCO,ze in 2015 and are projected to increase to 143 MtCO,e by 2030 as the country pursues the Vision 2030 development agenda. The 2015 emissions represent an increase of 65.2 % over the period and less than
0.1% of the 2015 global emissions, including LULUCF. In 2015, the leading source of emissions was agriculture at 40% of the total national emissions, mostly due to livestock enteric fermentation, manure left on pasture and agricultural soils and fertilizer application. ‘This was closely followed by LULUCF at 38% because of deforestation and energy, including transport at 18%. The balance is from industrial processes and product use (IPPU) at 3% and waste management at 1%. However, projections show that by
2030, energy will be the leading contributor to emissions because of increased consumption of fossil fuels in generating electricity, meeting domestic, commercial and industrial heating demands and for transportation.

Kenya Vision 2030 identified climate change as a risk that could slow the country’s development. Climate change actions have been incorporated into the Medium-Term Plans (MTP), starting from the second MTP (2013–2017). In the Third Medium-Term Plan (2018–2022), climate change was mainstreamed across sector plans. The country’s focus is adaptation with great mitigation potential.

1.3 Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework

1.3.1 Policy Framework

The Kenya Vision 2030, the long-term national development blueprint encapsulates flagship programmes and projects with aspects of adaptation and mitigation. The National Climate Change Response Strategy
(NCCRS), which was developed in 2010, was the first national policy document on climate change. It aimed to advance the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation into all government planning, budgeting and development objectives.

To operationalize the NCCRS, the first National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2013–2017) was prepared in 2013 for a period of five years. It established Kenya’s baseline emissions projections up to 2030 and developed a low carbon climate resilient development pathway for the country outlining priority adaptation and mitigation actions. The second NCCAP (2018–2022) for the period 2018 to 2022 was developed in 2018. The current NCCAP II identifies the country’s priority climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. The actions are intended to contribute to the country’s achievement of the low carbon climate resilient development pathway, poverty eradication and the NDC target. Financing of the NCCAP is achieved through the current and successive medium-term plans (MTPs). As an Annex to the NCCAP
(2018–2022), a Mitigation Technical Analysis Report (MTAR 2018–2022) and an Adaptation Technical Analysis Report (ATAR 2018–2022) were provided to elaborate on the mitigation and adaptation actions,
respectively. Kenya has also developed its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) (2015–2030) which was submitted to the UNFCCC in 2017. The NAP provided a climate hazard and vulnerability assessment and set out priority adaptation actions.

In addition to the Kenya Vision 2030 and climate change-related policies, the country has put in place several sectoral policies to support implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. Some of the key policies include: the National Policy on Climate Finance; Climate Risk Management
framework; the National Livestock Policy 2015; National Oceans and Fisheries Policy 2008; the Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTGS) (2019–2029); the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategy (2017–2028); the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+); the National Drought Management Authority Management Authority (NDMA) Act (2016); the Water Act, (2016); Forest Conservation and Management Act (2016) among others.

1.3.2 Legal Framework

The Constitution of Kenya (2010) provides the foundation for implementation of climate change actions through its Bill of Rights provisions especially the right to a clean and healthy environment. To provide a
legal framework for climate change, the Climate Change Act was enacted in 2016. The Act provides for a regulatory framework for enhanced response to climate change and mechanism and measures to achieve low carbon climate development. The Act establishes governance structures for climate change
management in the country with the National Climate Change Council being responsible for oversight and coordination. The NCCC is chaired by His Excellency, the President of the Republic of Kenya. In addition, the Act defines the roles of both national and county governments in mainstreaming and
implementation of climate change actions in the country. It also defines the role of non-state actors in the reporting and management of emissions.

The Act obligates the Cabinet Secretary responsible for climate change affairs every five years to formulate an economy-wide National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) that prescribe measures and mechanisms, inter alia to guide the county toward the achievement of low carbon climate resilient sustainable development and mainstreaming climate change into national and sectoral development planning and the County Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs). To ensure that the NCCAP is implemented across all sectors, the Act provides that it shall be approved by the NCCC. Consequently, the
implementation of the country’s NDC is to be done through the current and successive NCCAPs.

1.3.3 Institutional Framework

The Act establishes the Climate Change Directorate (CCD) as the lead government agency responsible for coordinating climate change plans and actions and related measurement, monitoring, and reporting. To
ensure coherence, the Act designates the CCD as the Secretariat for the NCCC with the responsibility of coordinating the technical aspects of the implementation of climate change functions. Such functions, include: providing analytical support and technical assistance on climate change and coordinating the implementation of and reporting on the NCCAPs as well as capacity building support at the two levels of government — National and County Governments.

The Act obligates, at the sectoral level, state departments to establish Climate Change Units (CCUs) to integrate NCCAP actions into their strategies and implementation plans. At the sub-national level, county governments are required to designate a County Executive Committee member to coordinate climate change in each county through the establishment of a Climate Change Unit (CCU).

2. NDC Revision Process

The NDC update process entailed working closely with the stakeholders in an inclusive and consultative manner to update and enhance Kenya’s initial NDC. This is in accordance with paragraph 22–35 of decision 1/CP.21 and Decision 4/CMA.1 and its annex. In addition, the process was structured to support
enhancement of mitigation, adaptation and transparent communication, together with the alignment of the NDC with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The enhancements have not only targeted mitigation ambitions of the NDC, but also the strengthening of NDC’s implementation. The adaptation component of this NDC draws from the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). Throughout the process, clear communication was a major consideration in order to facilitate stakeholder ownership and effective implementation.

Following the guidance provided in ‘Enhancing NDCs: A Guide to Strengthening National Climate Plans By 2020"’, a clear and inclusive process for NDC enhancement was established. The process entailed the review of relevant national plans, policies and legislation in order to ensure alignment and coherence with the NDC. Working with a defined work plan, the process was led by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry while the coordination was carried by the Climate Change Directorate under the Ministry.
Stakeholders were identified from various national and county government sectors, civil society, academia and private sector. In person expert consultative workshops were held prior to COVID 19 limitations, thereafter virtual workshops were adopted as a means of stakeholder engagements.

https://ndepartnership.org/toolbox/enhancing-ndcs-guide-strengthening-national-climate-plans, World Resource Institute and UNDP

For the update of the NDC, reference has been made to the technical analysis reports of the NCCAP 2018- 2022. The Mitigation Technical Analysis Report, the Adaptation Technical Analysis Report and the NIR 3 have been used as the starting point for the update analysis. The document review framework is
summarised in Figure 1.

NEXT STEPS

Vision 2030 (2008–2030)

First Medium Term Plan Second Medium Term Plan Third Medium Term Plan Fourth Medium Term Plan
(2008–2012) (2013–2017) (2018–2022) (2023–2027)

“Analysis is Repor
(2017). i i i — ‘
anne 2 v ; 3 vv v Mi y
NOC : — — (DNDC NDC NOG
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Figure 1: Document Review for NDC Update

The data and information collected from the document reviews and various consultations were then used for the simultaneous determination and design of the updated NDC, including mitigation and adaptation enhancements. As part of the assessment of the extent and impact of implementation of the NDC to date, an inventory of historical GHG emissions was prepared up to June 2020, subject to data availability. The inventory applied the GHG Inventory established under the NIR 3 up to the year 2015. Thereafter, the inventory was extended to cover up to June 2020 applying the best available data from various official sources and reports.

3. Contribution

Kenya’s Updated NDC includes both mitigation and adaptation components based on her national circumstances and in line with decisions 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20. The mitigation co-benefits of the adaptation actions will be included in the mitigation contribution of this NDC. Kenya will develop domestic legislation and institutional frameworks to govern her engagement in market and non-market mechanisms. Cognisant that different gender groups have different vulnerabilities in regards to climate change and contribute differently to the same due to their respective gender roles, Kenya will implement the outlined adaptation and mitigation priorities in a gender responsive manner.

3.1. Mitigation

Kenya aims to achieve her Vision 2030 through a low carbon, climate resilient development pathway. Kenya will implement and periodically update the
National Climate Change Action Plans (NCCAPs) to

MITIGATION GOAL: Kenya seeks to undertake an ambitious mitigation contribution towards the Paris Agreement. Kenya therefore seeks to abate her GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 relative to the BAU scenario of 143 MtCQzeq; and in line with her sustainable development agenda. Subject to
national circumstances, Kenya intends to bear 21% of the mitigation cost from domestic sources, while 79% of this is subject to international support in the form of finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.

achieve this target. This will include (but not limited to) the promotion and implementation of the following priority mitigation activities: e Increasing of renewables in the electricity generation mix of the national grid. e Enhancement of energy and resource efficiency across the different sectors.

@ Making progress towards achieving a tree cover of at least 10% of the land area of Kenya.
@ Make efforts towards achieving land degradation neutrality.
* Scaling up Nature Based Solutions (NBS) for mitigation
# Enhancement of REDD+ activities
© Clean, efficient and sustainable energy technologies to reduce over-reliance on fossil and non-sustainable biomass fuels.

e Low carbon and efficient transportation systems.

* Climate smart agriculture (CSA) in line with the Kenya CSA Strategy with emphasis to efficient livestock management systems.

e Sustainable waste management systems.

e Harness the mitigation benefits of the sustainable blue economy, including coastal carbon Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES).

The resource requirements estimates mitigation activities for the period 2020 to 2030 are estimated at USD 17, 725 Million. Subject to national circumstances, Kenya intends to bear 21% (3,725 Million USD)
of the mitigation cost from domestic sources, while the balance of USD 14,000 Million (79% of this) is subject to international support. However, these estimated resource requirements may change with changing circumstances.

3.1.1. Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding

1 Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year):

(a) Base year for emission projections: 2010
Reference year for BAU emissions target: 2030

Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s)

(b) Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, | The projected emission level in 2030 is 143 Million tonnes of CO2-their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), equivalents (MtCQje). reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year;

© For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, Not applicable.

paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined paragraph 1(b)above is contributions where not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information
(d) Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed | 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emission compared to 2030 BAU
numerically, for example in percentage or amount of | (baseline) scenario levels.
reduction
(e) Information on sources of data used in quantifving the | The reference indicator was quantified based on projected national
reference point(s) total GHG emissions in 2030 reported in Kenya’s NCCAP 2013-
2017.
& Information on the circumstances under which the Party | The national total GHG emissions in 2030 may be updated and
may update the values of the reference indicators. recalculated due to continuous methodological improvements or
data availability. Information on updates made will be included in
the NIR and/or Biennial Transparency Reports.

[2 Time frames and/or periods for implementation:

(a) Time frame and/or period for implementation, including | From 1st January 2021 to 31st December 2030, with milestone

start and end date, consistent with any further relevant targets at 2025.
decision adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving

as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement

(CMA);

(b) Whether it is a single-year or multi-rear target, as | Single-year target in 2030.

applicable,

3 Scope and coverage:

(a) General description of the target Economy-wide, emission reductions by at least 32% compared to

2030 BAU (baseline) emissions.The target covers all sectors and
greenhouse gases.
In the event that Kenya’s enhanced NDC Target is exceeded, Kenya
intends to use the both market and non-market provisions
mechanisms provisions of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, based
on domestic legislation developed.

(b) Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the | Information will be provided in Kenya’s NIR that will be consistent

nationally determined contribution, including, as | with the IPCC guidelines.

applicable, consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on | Sectors:

Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines Energy; industrial processes and product use; agriculture; land-use,
land-use change and forestry; and waste.
Gases:
Carbon dioxide (CO:); methane (CH,); and nitrous oxide (N20).
The following gases, which are currently negligible, may be
included in the Updated NDC: perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF,) and
nitrogen trifluoride (NFs).
For the land-use, land-use change, and forestry sector, emissions
and removals the following reporting categories are included: forest
land, cropland, grassland, and wetland, including land use changes
between the categories, and between these categories and
settlements and other land. The five carbon pools above-ground
biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, dead wood and soil organic
matters are included. In addition, the carbon pool harvested wood
products is included.

Kc) How the Party has taken into consideration paragraph | Kenya’s NIR describes the sources considered insignificant and

31(c) and (d) of decision 1 /CP.21; reported as not estimated. The NIR provides justifications for
exclusion in terms of the likely level of emissions and how these are
in line with the thresholds specified in decision 24/CP.19. A similar
approach, consistent with decision 18/CMA.1 will be used for
reporting under the Paris Agreement.

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

(d) Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation | The mitigation co-benefits of the adaptation actions will be included
actions and/or economic diversification plans, including | in the mitigation contribution of this NDC
description of specific projects, measures and initiatives
of Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic
diversification plans,
4 Planning processes:

(a) Information on the planning processes that the Party | Covered in section 2
undertook to prepare its nationally determined
contribution and, if available, on the Party’s
implementation plans, including, as appropriate:

(i) Domestic _ institutional arrangements, public | Covered in section 2
participation and engagement with local communities
and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner

(ii) Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as
appropriate:

a. National circumstances, such os geography, climate, | Covered in section 1.2
economy, sustainable development and __ poverty
eradication

b. Best practices and experience related to the preparation | Covered in section 2
of the nationally determined contribution

c Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged | Just transition: Kenya has an extensive consultation process for
when joining the Paris Agreement social protection and institutionalised review by stakeholders. This

serves, amongst others, to to ensure all stakeholder interests are
considered in all climate action.

Human Rights: Citizen rights are enshrined in The Constitution of
Kenya.

Food security: Kenya prioritizes food security of its citizens, hence
response to climate change should safeguard the citizens basic rights
to food.

All of society approach: Kenya’s approach in tackling climate
change and its impacts involves engagement of all actors —
government and non government players that include civil society
actors, private sector, academia, media, development partners and
the citizens.

Gender equality: Kenya has various laws to promote gender
equality and provide for the protection against discrimination on the
basis of gender, with equal opportunities in education, work, and in
cultural and professional development.

(b) Specific information applicable to Parties, including | Not applicable
regional economic integration organizations and their
member States, that have reached an agreement to act
jointly under Article 4,paragraph 2, of the Paris
Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act
jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance
with Article 4, paragraphs16–18, of the Paris
Agreement.

© How the Party’s preparation of its nationally determined | Kenya’s climate targets and polices are developed in the context of
contribution has been informed by the outcomes of the | best available science, and hence the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C,
global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, has been central to the assessment of the nationally determined
paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement contribution.

(d) Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or

economic divers

ation plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit
Pp 4 8 paregrap

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

information on:

accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
and removals corresponding to the Party’s nationally
determined contribution, consistent with decision
1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance

adopted by the CMA;

(i) How the economic and social consequences of response | Kenya’s NDC consists of adaptation actions. The economic and
measures have been considered in developing the | social consequences of the adaptation measures were analysed in the
nationally determined contribution NAP and also in the adaptation section of the NDC.

(ii) Specific projects, measures and activities to be | Such projects, measures and activities have been identified in various
implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, | technical documents but their contributions have not been included
including information on adaptation plans that also | in the NDC. Each such project, measure or activities will be
Yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are | considered for inclusion in to the NDC mitigation contribution on a
not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, case by case basis.
water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and
urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic
diversification actions, which may cover, but are not
limited to, sectorssuch as manufacturing and industry,
energy and mining, transport and
communication, construction, tourism, real estate,
agriculture and fisheries.

5 Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals:

(a) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for | Kenya will at the latest by 31 December 2021 report a GHG

inventory in accordance with 18/CMA.1 and report on progress
towards its nationally determined contribution by 2025. For
accounting relevant information, Kenya will use the accounting
guidance in 4/CMA.1. For IPCC methodologies and metrics, see 5
(d).

Final accounting towards the target, that will take place in 2032,
may depend on further arrangements with Kenya’s participation in
Article 6 programmes. Any use of internationally transferred
mitigation outcomes within that framework will be included in
Kenya’s accounting, consistent with the approach that will have been
negotiated under the UNFCCC process.

(b)

Assumptions and methodological approaches used for
accounting for the implementation of policies and
measures or strategies in the nationally determined
contribution;

Not applicable.

©

If applicable, information on how the Party will take
into account existing methods and guidance under the
Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and
removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of
the Paris Agreement, as appropriate

Kenya’s current GHG inventory is in accordance with decision
24/CP.19 and hence the Revised 2006 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006), the Good
Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000), Good Practice Guidance
for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2003). The
in Good Practice

concepts contained

implemented in stages, according to sector priorities and national

Guidance are being

circumstances.

(a)

IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating

anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals

IPCC 2006 guidelines, global warming potentials (GWP) for a 100-
year time horizon from the IPCCs fifth Assessment Report will be
used to calculate CO: equivalents.

()

Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate,

including, as applicable:

(i)

Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent
removals from natural disturbances on managed lands

This is treated as part of land use change under LULUCF as per the
Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and
Forestry (IPCC, 2003)

(ii)

Approach used to account for emissions and removals

Harvested wood products are not included in the emission

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from harvested woad products calculations.

(iii) | Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure | Not applicable
in forests;

(f) Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable,
estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including:

(i) How the reference indicators, baseline(s)and/or reference | Removals from the land sector will be accounted for based on
level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- | specific accounting rules for the different land categories as per the
or activity-specific reference levels, are constructed, Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and
including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, | Forestry (IPCC, 2003)
definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used

(ii) For Parties with nationally determined contributions that | Not applicable.
contain non green house-gas components, information on
assumptions and methodological approaches used in
relation to those components, as applicable

(iii) | For climate forcers included in nationally determined | Not applicable.
contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines,
information on how the climate forcers are estimated

(iv) Further technical information, as unecessary Not applicable

(g) The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article | Kenya intends to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the
6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable. Paris Agreement, if applicable, with the guidance adopted by CMA.

Kenya will develop domestic legislation and __ institutional
frameworks to govern her engagement in market and non-market
mechanism.

6 How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its
national circumstances:

(a) How the Party considers that its nationally determined |e Kenya is a developing country, with diverse economic
contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its development challenges compounded by climate change impacts.
national. circumstances le Kenya’s contribution to total global emissions is less than 0.1%

(in 2019), while the per-capita emissions are less than 2.06
MtCO.eq compared to the global average of 4.92 MtCOze
(2018),
@ This update builds on the initial NDC in which Kenya undertook
to make a contribution that targeted a high proportion of its
mitigation potential, and was dependent on the level of
international support available.
f° The contributions set through this Updated NDC therefore
reflect an enhancement of ambition in the following two areas:
a. An increase in emission reduction target by 2030 from
30% in the initial NDC to 32% in this Updated NDC
b. Enhanced domestic contribution from 0% to 13% of
the NDC budget
(b) Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity Kenya being a developing country prioritizes increasing the per-
capita GDP growth above the 2019 levels of 6.36% so as to address
poverty alleviation and sustainable economic development in a the
low carbon climate resilient development pathway. This has
informed the NDC update process, and represents a high level of
fairness and ambition in light of Kenya’s national circumstances.
Kenya regards its nationally determined contribution to represent
its fair share of the efforts to achieve the global long-term goal of the
Paris Agreement.

© How the Party has addressed Article 4,paragraph 3, of | Kenya’s updated NDC represents a progression beyond _ its

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

the Paris Agreement

previously communicated NDC, as the emission reductions are
enhanced from at least 30% to 32% under extremely difficult
national circumstances.

It is an ambitious target for Kenya to achieve by 2030. The
achievement of the target is dependent on a broad set of mitigation
measures. The implementation of the Updated NDC for 2030 will
be an important part of Kenya’s process of transforming to a low-
emission society by 2050.

(d) How the Party has addressed Article -,paragraph +4, of | Kenya’s NDC covers all sectors of the economy.
the Paris Agreement

(e) How the Party has addressed Article +, paragraph 6, of | Not applicable.
the Paris Agreement.

7 How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set
out in its Article 2:

(a) How the nationally determined contribution contributes | Kenya regards the long-term target of the Paris Agreement to be in
towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set line with Article 2 of the Convention, as explained under 6a
out in its Article 2 (above).

(b) How the NDC contributes towards Article2, paragraph | Addressed in 6a and 7a.

1(a), and Article 4,paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement.

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

3.2. Adaptation and Loss & Damage

All sectors of the Kenyan economy are vulnerable to
climate change. Kenya’s GDP relies on climate
sensitive sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industry
and manufacturing. Adaptation thus is the highest
priority for Kenya, not only through preventing
further

infrastructure and economic development, while

losses and damage, but underpinning
safeguarding lives, livelihoods and social development
in line with Kenya Vision 2030, MTP III (2018–2022),

ADAPTATION GOAL: Kenya aims to ensure a
climate resilient society. This is to be achieved
through mainstreaming climate change
adaptation into the Medium-Term Plans
(MTPs) and County Integrated Development
Plans (CIDPs) and implementing adaptation
actions. Subject to national circumstances,

Kenya intends to mobilize domestic resources
to cater for 10% of the adaptation cost, while
90% of the adaptation cost will require
international support in form of finance,

the NCCAP II (2018–2022) and the NAP (2015–2030).
Effective adaptation action will catalyse mitigation

technology development and transfer, and
capacity building.

activity across sectors.

Kenya is committed to enhancing its adaptation
ambition by committing to bridging the implementation gaps which include:
© enhancing the adaptive capacity and climate resilience across all the sectors of the economy and at
the two levels of government — National and County Governments;
e exploring innovative livelihood strategies for enhancing climate resilience of local communities
through financing of locally led climate change actions;
¢ enhancing risk-based approach to climate change adaptation through development and application
of comprehensive climate risk management tools that would help in addressing and adaptively
managing climate risks;
© addressing residual climate change impacts, loss and damage especially in the productive sectors of
the economy;
e enhance generation, packaging and widespread uptake and use of climate information in decision
making and planning across sectors and counties with robust early warning systems (EWS);
e Enhance uptake of adaptation technology especially of women, youth and other vulnerable groups,
incorporating scientific and indigenous knowledge;
¢ Enhancing investment in ocean and blue economy;
e Institutional strengthening of the CCD, the Climate Change Units and related institutions across
sectors and counties as well as non-state actor institutions; and
© Strengthening tools for adaptation monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) at the national and
county levels, including non-state actors.
To achieve the above, Kenya intends to implement various priority actions, to attain the Triple Adaptation
Dividend namely; avoided losses, economic benefits, social and environmental benefits. Some of these

interventions may result in mitigation co-benefits.

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

The total cost of adaptation actions up to 2030 is estimated at USD 43,927 Million. Subject to national
circumstances, Kenya intends to mobilize domestic resources to cater for 10% of the adaptation cost,
while 90% of the adaptation cost, will require international support in form of finance, technology
development and transfer, and capacity building. The prioritised programmes are presented in Table 2

below.

Table 2: Prioritized Adaptation Programs

Disaster risk reduction |P1: Drought risk management including drought early warning, preparedness, and response for
enhanced drought resilience.

P2: Flood risk management incorporating nature based solutions
Agriculture (crops, P3; Mainstream CSA towards increased productivity through value chain approach to support the
transformation of agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries) into an innovative, commercially oriented,

livestock and fisheries)
competitive and modern sector.

P4; Build resilience of the agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries) systems through sustainable
management of land, soil, water and other natural resources as well as insurance and other safety nets.

PS: Strengthen communication systems on CSA extension and agro-weather issues

Environment P6: Rehabilitation and conservation of degraded forests
P7: Establish at least 2,000 hectares to promote nature based (non-wood forest products) enterprises

across the country

P8: Establish 150,000 ha commercial private forests plantations

P9: Plant 350,000 agro-forestry trees in farmlands established

P10: Greening of 14,000 ha of infrastructure (roads, railway lines, dams)

P11: Enhance/strengthen governance of community structures in participatory resource management in

coastal ecosystems

P12:Conduct blue carbon readiness assessment for full integration of blue carbon/ocean climate actions
into NDCs

P13: Develop marine spatial planning and outline sustainable management approaches

P14: Promote and expand opportunities for nature based enterprises including seaweed farming, and
mangrove ecotourism
P15: Integrate the use of nature based solutions, including the implementation of national mangrove

management plan, into national and county development plans
P16: Strengthen carly-warning and tailor made climate information services through institutional

strengthening of KMD and other information_user institutions

P17: Roll-out Early Action Protocols for forecast based financing
Infrastructure P18:Develop and adopt guidelines on how to climate proof energy infrastructure using vulnerability risk

(energy) assessments

P19:Enhance climate proofing of energy infrastructure along the renewable energy supply chain

P20: Increase the number of companies participating in energy efficient water-use initiatives by 40%
from the baseline

Infrastructure (roads) P21:Upscale the construction of roads to systematically harvest water and reduce flooding
P22: Enhance institutional capacities an climate proofing vulnerable road infrastructure through

vulnerability assessments

P23: Promote the use of appropriate designs and building materials to enhance resilience of, at least
4500km of roads to climate risk
‘Water and sanitation _|P24:Conduct and implement recommendations on climate and risk assessments on water, sanitation and

irrigation infrastructure

P25 :Build resilience infrastructure for the protection of dams and dykes and river lines

P26:Promote water harvesting and storage at county and houschold levels

P27; Mainstream climate change into water catchment management plans

Health P28:Conduct a vulnerability and risk assessment of different climate risks on human health

P29: Develop a public awareness and social mobilisation strategy an climate change and health impacts
P30; Develop health programmes, protocols and guidance to manage new climate change related

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P31:Reduce the incidence of malaria, other vector borne disease and other health conditions

Population,
urbanisation and
housing

P32: Introduce nature based solutions in flood control especially around informal settlements and
selected urban arcas

P33: Strengthen the enforcement of green building codes by national and county governments

P34:Conduct climate risk and vulnerability assessment of building/housing infrastructure especially to
flooding, and sea level rise

Tourism

P35; Develop and adopt guidelines of how to integrate adaptation across the tourism sector

P36: Conduct a climate risk and vulnerability assessment of the tourism sector

P37: Develop climate resilient action plans for the sector

Gender, youth and
other vulnerable
groups

P38: Develop social safety net structures for women, youth and other vulnerable groups within the
CCCFs

P39: Strengthen access af women, youth, other vulnerable groups to enterprise funds, climate finance
and credit lines

P40: Promote gender responsive technologies and innovations in the private sector, through financing
capacity building and start-up services

P41; Consolidate successful technologies and develop a transfer strategy to women, youth and other
vulnerable populations

Private Sector

P42:Mobilize financial resources from capital markets and other financial instruments for green
investments and implementation of the Green Business Agenda

P43: Eco-label industrial products to promote green procurement especially by public procurement
agencies
P44:Climate-proof waste management infrastructure for waste management facilities in SEZ (effluent

treatment plants)

P45:Increase the number of companies participating in efficient water-use initiatives

Devolution P46: Develop and adopt county adaptation guidelines for integration in CIDPs
P47: Build the capacities of County CCUs on adaptation
P48: Conducting vulnerability and risk assessments in counties
P49: Develop county adaptation plans for the counties with CCCFs
Adaptation M&E PSO: Refine and operationalise the adaptation M&E system at national and county levels
system
TOTAL

4. Monitoring, Reporting and Verification of Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions and Support

Kenya has developed an Integrated MRV system, including an Integrated MRV tool, for monitoring and

reporting of both mitigation and adaptation actions, together with their results. To facilitate the tracking

of climate change actions and reporting, the system includes appropriate indicators, including those on

baselines that will be continuously improved over time through an evaluation mechanism. This Integrated

MRV system is linked with the already existing monitoring and reporting systems including the National

Integrated Monitoring System (NIMES) and County Integrated Monitoring System (CIMES). Under the

Integrated MRV system, Counties and various sectors are to downscale and contextualise the indicators

into their county and sector planning documents. To implement the MRYV system, the M&E frameworks

developed for sectors and counties will track progress of climate action and results.

Cb

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

The Integrated MRV system, which is coordinated from the Climate Change Directorate, is embedded in
the Climate Change Act which obligates all State and Non-State climate change actors to report on all their
climate change activities on an annual basis. The annual reports, which are generated under the Act by
State and Non- State climate change actors do not only track the implementation status of the NCCAP,
the NAP and the NDC, but also constitute a key component of the Integrated MRV System.

The reports generated through the Integrated MRV System will provide input for both national and
international reporting, thus addressing various reporting obligations. Tracking of support required and
received for climate action by all actors in Kenya (both state and non-state) is done by the National

Treasury.

5. Fairness and ambition

Kenya believes that the key factors in determining the fairness of a contribution should include historical
responsibility and respective capability to address climate change. The UNFCCC also recognises that the
extent to which developing countries will meet their obligations under the Convention will depend on the

level of support in terms of finance, technology and capacity building available.

While Kenya’s historical emission contribution is negligible, at less than 0.1% (in 2019) of the total global
emissions, while the per-capita emissions are less than 2.06 MtCO,eq compared to the global average of
4.92 MtCO,e (2018), Kenya places a high priority on response to climate change. In order to meet the
below 2°C objective, all countries will need to undertake mitigation based on the common but

differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in accordance with the Convention.

Kenya is determined to continue playing her role in addressing climate change by communicating a fair and
ambitious contribution. This update builds on the initial NDC in which Kenya undertook to make a
contribution that targeted a high proportion of its mitigation potential, and was dependent on the level of
international support available. This will involve implementing the priority mitigation and adaptation
actions in the NCCAP to achieve a low carbon climate resilient development in line with Vision 2030, and
committing some domestic resources for that purpose.
The contributions set through this Updated NDC therefore reflect an enhancement of ambition in the
following two areas:
© An increase in emission reduction target by 2030 from 30% in the initial NDC to 32% in this
Updated NDC
¢ An enhanced commitment to domestic contribution (subject to national circumstances) to the
NDC cost from 0% to 13.2% compared to the initial NDC.

However, the country’s capability to implement this contribution is also subject to limitations, with
poverty alleviation and sustainable economic development being the key national objectives. Increasing the
per-capita GDP growth equitably above the 2019 levels of 6.36% is therefore a priority. Therefore, the
country will need substantial support to realize its development objectives through the low carbon climate

resilient development pathway that has informed the NDC update process. Kenya’s NDC represents her

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MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTRY

aspiration to increase the resilience to climate change by introducing programmes for adaptation action
across sectors in support of livelihoods, poverty eradication and economic well-being of the Kenyan people
while at the same time pursuing a low carbon development pathway. This represents a high level of

fairness and ambition in light of Kenya’s national circumstances.

4, Planning process

Kenya’s planning process on mitigation and adaptation hinges on the Vision 2030, the MTPs, NCCAP I
and II and the NAP. The NCCAPs are reviewed every five years to inform the MTP. The adaptation
actions are proposed in the NAP 2015–2030 and further detailed in in the ATARs in each NCCAP.

Mitigation and adaptation actions are implemented across the various sectors and at national and county
government levels. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry coordinates the country’s climate change

affairs through the National Climate Change Council and the Climate Change Directorate.

5. Means of implementation

Kenya’s contribution will be implemented with both

Implementation of Kenya’s NDC will cost over
USD 62 Billion up to 2030. Kenya will consider

domestic and international support. It is estimated that

over USD 62 billion is required for mitigation and any climate finance in terms of loans as part of
adaptation actions across sectors up to 2030. Of the |} her domestic contribution.

estimated total budget, 71% is required to make Kenya
resilient to the increasing impacts of climate change. This is expected to catalyze mitigation actions as well
as provide mitigation co-benefits. 29% of the budget will support mitigation activities and ensure a low
carbon development pathway. Kenya will mobilize resources to meet approximately 13% of this budget,
requiring international support for the balance. The international support required is in form of finance,
technology development and transfer, and capacity-building to fully realize her NDC. Kenya will consider

any climate finance in terms of loans as part of her domestic contribution.

Signed:…….. : Ra eOO-Os Oo signed. \AVAAAA Pret ved SANA
Hon. Keriako Tobik@eCBS, SC, Hon. é (Rtd) Paul Kihara Kariuk

Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Environment Attorney General, Kenya

and Forestry, Kenya
( Date Kara dmshee<)

Sigrfed… seme Pipe Signed\. WN ALA LAL ANS

Hon, (Amb.) Amb. Raychelle A. Omamo/ EGH, $C

Cabinét-Seéretary, The National Treasury & Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Kenya

Planning, Kenya
oe AED tne, VO%e . pete. 2641 12-f 20.48

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